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    堅持讓員工回辦公室,因為庫克有“心理盲點”?

    堅持讓員工回辦公室,因為庫克有“心理盲點”?

    Gleb Tsipursky 2021年07月30日
    在制訂復工或重返辦公室相關政策時,商界領袖必須考慮到德爾塔變種病毒的影響。

    圖片來源:Luis Alvarez—Getty Images

    以色列一份最新報告顯示,新冠疫苗對德爾塔變種病毒的有效性僅為39%,在此背景之下,重返辦公室辦公絕非明智選擇。對于其中風險,我們務必要有清醒意識:未來數月,德爾塔病例預計將大幅增加。事實上,美國疾病控制與預防中心(CDC)正考慮要求接種過疫苗的民眾在室內恢復佩戴口罩,推薦民眾接種加強針疫苗也已提上日程。

    然而即便疫情高峰期居家辦公取得了良好成果,還有德爾塔肆虐的憂慮,但許多大、中型企業甚至聯邦政府仍在強制要求員工重返辦公室辦公。超過三分之一的員工已經重返辦公室,預計其余員工大多將于夏末或秋季前半段重返辦公室,屆時,學校將會重新開放,德爾塔病例數量預計也將大幅飆升。

    聯邦政府及諸多家喻戶曉的企業——蘋果、施樂(Xerox)、摩根大通(JPMorgan)、高盛(Goldman Sachs)、美國國際集團(American International Group)和雅培(Abbott Laboratories)——為何要把員工的健康置于危險之中呢?又為何眼見大量員工因被迫重返辦公室而選擇離職依然我行我素?

    德爾塔病例數飆升之前,已有一系列針對員工對重返辦公室態度的深度調查顯示,如果無法獲得自己想要的工作安排,約有一半的員工寧愿選擇辭職。相關調查顯示,1/4到1/3的員工想全職遠程工作,而超過一半的員工希望實施“混合辦公”模式,每周在辦公室工作一到兩天的時間。

    由于雇主計劃強制要求員工重返辦公室辦公,許多人已經辭去工作?,F在,出于對德爾塔病毒爆發的恐懼,勢必將有更多人因不愿承受突破性感染的健康風險而選擇離職。

    而如此多的大型企業之所以未能注意到員工對工作偏好和健康問題的關切,其根源在于所謂的“認知偏見”(一廂情愿且危險的判斷偏差)。這類心理盲點會讓領導者在進行選擇時做出糟糕的戰略和財務決策,使其僅憑感覺和個人喜好而非最佳實踐制訂重返辦公室的政策。

    其中,“正?;姟保ň芙^為一場從未發生過的災難做準備或做出反應)是導致領導者低估德爾塔病例激增威脅的最大原因,這種危險的判斷偏差會讓我們低估破壞性事件發生的可能性及影響。

    目前,已有明顯證據表明,自6月初開始,德爾塔病毒已導致美國新冠感染人數大幅增加。此外還有明顯證據表明,自5月開始,在英國、以色列等疫苗接種率高于美國的國家也出現了因德爾塔病毒導致疫情升溫的情況。

    大型企業一直對自己基于數據進行決策的行為引以為榮。這些數據他們都有,甚至就在他們的眼皮底下,而且他們也沒有理由不清楚新冠感染病例爆發式增長的危險,但他們依然對這種明顯存在的危險置若罔聞,堅持強制要求員工重返辦公室上班。

    這就涉及到了另一個重要心理盲點——“計劃謬誤”。計劃謬誤會導致領導者作出過于樂觀的計劃,并在新證據已經證明相關計劃并不明智的情況下拒絕改變。畢竟做出改變就意味著承認自己最初做出了錯誤決策。當新出現的證據表明需要進行改變時,軟弱的領導者常常會拒絕承認錯誤,拒絕承認自己的計劃有調整的必要,而強大的領導者則會展現出改變計劃的勇氣。

    幸運的是,我們看到了少數公司表現出了這種勇氣,只是很多改變只是小修小補,并未觸及問題核心。

    例如,蘋果將重返辦公室的時間從9月推遲到了10月。而這種推遲一個月的做法則表明其未能弄清問題的關鍵所在。不僅德爾塔變種病毒的爆發將于10月到達頂峰,另一個更大問題同樣需要我們注意。

    蘋果和其他強制員工重返辦公室的大企業需要面對的現實是,一方面,疫苗的免疫力在接種數月之后會逐漸減弱;另一方面,比德爾塔變種病毒威力更強的新病毒變種也在不斷出現,可能是“德爾塔+”,也可能是其他類型。

    考慮到未來較長一段時間內可能出現諸多與此相似的情況,德爾塔只能算是一個短期問題。我們之所以不愿意面對這種顯而易見的困境則是因為一種學者們稱之為“鴕鳥效應”的認知偏見(訛傳鴕鳥會在面對危險時將頭埋進沙子之中,雖然事實并非如此,但該效應卻因此得名)。一項針對董事會解雇首席執行官的研究表明,否認負面現實是首席執行官遭到解雇的首要原因,有23%受訪董事會成員選擇該選項。

    在重返辦公室這一問題上,要克服正?;?、計劃謬誤和鴕鳥效應,我們需要依靠經過研究證明的最佳實踐。而對于大多數員工而言,所謂最佳實踐就是“混合工作模式”:每周在辦公室工作一兩天,有需要時則可以輕松轉為全職遠程工作。如果有相當一部分員工愿意全職遠程工作,并且能夠高效完成任務,那么何樂而不為呢?

    借助這種最佳實踐,那些最適合在辦公室辦公的員工可以最大化受益于辦公室協作優勢,同時還能留住那些將因無法全職遠程工作選擇離職的頂尖人才,并創建相應的公司文化、體系和流程,讓所有員工都能在需要時全職開展遠程工作。(財富中文網)

    格列布?齊普斯基是前瞻規劃(future-proofing)和認知偏差風險管理領域的思想領袖,目前在前瞻規劃咨詢公司——風險規避專家(Disaster Avoidance Experts)擔任首席執行官,著有《重返辦公室領導混合式遠程團隊:借助最佳實踐獲取競爭優勢的基準手冊》(Returning to the Office and Leading Hybrid and Remote Teams: A Manual on Benchmarking to Best Practices for Competitive Advantage)等暢銷讀物。

    譯者:梁宇

    審校:夏林

    以色列一份最新報告顯示,新冠疫苗對德爾塔變種病毒的有效性僅為39%,在此背景之下,重返辦公室辦公絕非明智選擇。對于其中風險,我們務必要有清醒意識:未來數月,德爾塔病例預計將大幅增加。事實上,美國疾病控制與預防中心(CDC)正考慮要求接種過疫苗的民眾在室內恢復佩戴口罩,推薦民眾接種加強針疫苗也已提上日程。

    然而即便疫情高峰期居家辦公取得了良好成果,還有德爾塔肆虐的憂慮,但許多大、中型企業甚至聯邦政府仍在強制要求員工重返辦公室辦公。超過三分之一的員工已經重返辦公室,預計其余員工大多將于夏末或秋季前半段重返辦公室,屆時,學校將會重新開放,德爾塔病例數量預計也將大幅飆升。

    聯邦政府及諸多家喻戶曉的企業——蘋果、施樂(Xerox)、摩根大通(JPMorgan)、高盛(Goldman Sachs)、美國國際集團(American International Group)和雅培(Abbott Laboratories)——為何要把員工的健康置于危險之中呢?又為何眼見大量員工因被迫重返辦公室而選擇離職依然我行我素?

    德爾塔病例數飆升之前,已有一系列針對員工對重返辦公室態度的深度調查顯示,如果無法獲得自己想要的工作安排,約有一半的員工寧愿選擇辭職。相關調查顯示,1/4到1/3的員工想全職遠程工作,而超過一半的員工希望實施“混合辦公”模式,每周在辦公室工作一到兩天的時間。

    由于雇主計劃強制要求員工重返辦公室辦公,許多人已經辭去工作?,F在,出于對德爾塔病毒爆發的恐懼,勢必將有更多人因不愿承受突破性感染的健康風險而選擇離職。

    而如此多的大型企業之所以未能注意到員工對工作偏好和健康問題的關切,其根源在于所謂的“認知偏見”(一廂情愿且危險的判斷偏差)。這類心理盲點會讓領導者在進行選擇時做出糟糕的戰略和財務決策,使其僅憑感覺和個人喜好而非最佳實踐制訂重返辦公室的政策。

    其中,“正?;姟保ň芙^為一場從未發生過的災難做準備或做出反應)是導致領導者低估德爾塔病例激增威脅的最大原因,這種危險的判斷偏差會讓我們低估破壞性事件發生的可能性及影響。

    目前,已有明顯證據表明,自6月初開始,德爾塔病毒已導致美國新冠感染人數大幅增加。此外還有明顯證據表明,自5月開始,在英國、以色列等疫苗接種率高于美國的國家也出現了因德爾塔病毒導致疫情升溫的情況。

    大型企業一直對自己基于數據進行決策的行為引以為榮。這些數據他們都有,甚至就在他們的眼皮底下,而且他們也沒有理由不清楚新冠感染病例爆發式增長的危險,但他們依然對這種明顯存在的危險置若罔聞,堅持強制要求員工重返辦公室上班。

    這就涉及到了另一個重要心理盲點——“計劃謬誤”。計劃謬誤會導致領導者作出過于樂觀的計劃,并在新證據已經證明相關計劃并不明智的情況下拒絕改變。畢竟做出改變就意味著承認自己最初做出了錯誤決策。當新出現的證據表明需要進行改變時,軟弱的領導者常常會拒絕承認錯誤,拒絕承認自己的計劃有調整的必要,而強大的領導者則會展現出改變計劃的勇氣。

    幸運的是,我們看到了少數公司表現出了這種勇氣,只是很多改變只是小修小補,并未觸及問題核心。

    例如,蘋果將重返辦公室的時間從9月推遲到了10月。而這種推遲一個月的做法則表明其未能弄清問題的關鍵所在。不僅德爾塔變種病毒的爆發將于10月到達頂峰,另一個更大問題同樣需要我們注意。

    蘋果和其他強制員工重返辦公室的大企業需要面對的現實是,一方面,疫苗的免疫力在接種數月之后會逐漸減弱;另一方面,比德爾塔變種病毒威力更強的新病毒變種也在不斷出現,可能是“德爾塔+”,也可能是其他類型。

    考慮到未來較長一段時間內可能出現諸多與此相似的情況,德爾塔只能算是一個短期問題。我們之所以不愿意面對這種顯而易見的困境則是因為一種學者們稱之為“鴕鳥效應”的認知偏見(訛傳鴕鳥會在面對危險時將頭埋進沙子之中,雖然事實并非如此,但該效應卻因此得名)。一項針對董事會解雇首席執行官的研究表明,否認負面現實是首席執行官遭到解雇的首要原因,有23%受訪董事會成員選擇該選項。

    在重返辦公室這一問題上,要克服正?;?、計劃謬誤和鴕鳥效應,我們需要依靠經過研究證明的最佳實踐。而對于大多數員工而言,所謂最佳實踐就是“混合工作模式”:每周在辦公室工作一兩天,有需要時則可以輕松轉為全職遠程工作。如果有相當一部分員工愿意全職遠程工作,并且能夠高效完成任務,那么何樂而不為呢?

    借助這種最佳實踐,那些最適合在辦公室辦公的員工可以最大化受益于辦公室協作優勢,同時還能留住那些將因無法全職遠程工作選擇離職的頂尖人才,并創建相應的公司文化、體系和流程,讓所有員工都能在需要時全職開展遠程工作。(財富中文網)

    格列布?齊普斯基是前瞻規劃(future-proofing)和認知偏差風險管理領域的思想領袖,目前在前瞻規劃咨詢公司——風險規避專家(Disaster Avoidance Experts)擔任首席執行官,著有《重返辦公室領導混合式遠程團隊:借助最佳實踐獲取競爭優勢的基準手冊》(Returning to the Office and Leading Hybrid and Remote Teams: A Manual on Benchmarking to Best Practices for Competitive Advantage)等暢銷讀物。

    譯者:梁宇

    審校:夏林

    With vaccine effectiveness against the coronavirus Delta variant dropping to 39%, according to a new report from Israel, it’s pure folly to pursue a normal office return. Make no mistake about the danger: The Delta surge is forecast to grow much worse in the next few months. Indeed, the CDC is considering asking vaccinated people to wear masks indoors and moving toward recommending booster shots.

    Yet many large companies and midsize firms, along with the federal government, are forcing employees who successfully worked from home during the height of the pandemic to return to the office. Over a third have already returned and most of the rest are slated to return by the end of summer or early-to-mid-fall, when schools will reopen and Delta cases will soar.

    Why are the federal government and household-name companies—Apple, Xerox, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, American International Group, and Abbott Laboratories—putting the health of their employees at serious risk? And why are they practically guaranteeing mass employee flight as part of the Great Resignation prompted by pressure to return to the office?

    After all, in-depth surveys of employee preferences on returning to the office—even before the Delta surge—show that about half are willing to quit if not given their preferred work arrangements. The surveys reveal that a quarter to a third of employees want full-time remote work, while over half want a hybrid schedule of a day or two in the office.

    Many have already quit due to employer plans to force them back to the office. Fears over the Delta surge will undoubtedly prompt even more to quit rather than risk their health due to breakthrough infections.

    The reason that so many large employers fail to listen to the concerns of employees, whether about their work preferences or their health, stems from the wishful thinking of dangerous judgment errors called cognitive biases. These mental blindspots lead to poor strategic and financial decision-making when evaluating options. They cause leaders to go with their gut and follow their personal preferences instead of relying on best practices for returning to the office.

    The biggest threat in underestimating the Delta surge comes from the normalcy bias. This dangerous judgment error leads us to underestimate the likelihood and impact of disruptive events.

    Consider that we already had clear evidence of U.S. COVID-19 cases caused by Delta beginning to surge in early June. We also had clear evidence already in May of a Delta-caused explosion of cases in countries with higher rates of vaccination than in the U.S., such as the U.K. and Israel.

    Big employers pride themselves on making data-driven decisions. They have the data: It is right under their noses. And they don’t have the excuse of not knowing about the danger of an explosive growth in COVID cases. Yet despite the clear and present danger of Delta, they’re insisting on forcing their employees back to the office.

    Another major mental blind spot at play, the planning fallacy, causes leaders to make overly optimistic plans and refuse to change them despite new evidence showing their folly. After all, changing your plans implies that you got them wrong in the first place. Weak leaders frequently refuse to admit they are mistaken and to acknowledge the need to change their plans. By contrast, strong leaders show the courage of changing their minds when new evidence shows a need to pivot.

    Fortunately, a small number of companies are showing the courage to revise their plans. Yet many of these revisions are Band-Aids rather than true pivots.

    Apple, for instance, delayed the return to the office from September to October. Yet this one-month delay shows that Apple just doesn't get it. Not only is the Delta variant slated to peak in October, but there’s a bigger issue at hand.

    Apple and the other large employers forcing employees back to the office need to face the reality that vaccine immunity wanes in a few months. At the same time, new variants are emerging, such as Delta Plus, which might be even worse than Delta.

    Delta is a short-term issue with a long-term tail of multiple, similar scenarios. Not facing this patently obvious unpleasant reality stems from a cognitive bias scholars call the ostrich effect, after the mythical notion that ostriches bury their heads in the sand when facing danger. Research suggests that denying negative reality is a top cause of CEOs getting fired, cited by 23% of members of boards of directors that terminated their CEOs.

    Overcoming normalcy bias, planning fallacy, and the ostrich effect in the return to the office requires relying on research-based best practices. That means a mainly hybrid model of a day or two in the office for most employees, who should be able to move easily to full-time remote work when needed. A substantial minority of employees should work full-time remotely, if they wish to do so and demonstrate effectiveness.

    This best-practice setup maximizes the benefits of in-office collaboration for those employees who benefit from it most while retaining top talent that would leave if not permitted full-time remote work, and creates a company culture, systems, and processes that facilitate full-time remote work when needed for all employees.

    Gleb Tsipursky is a thought leader in future-proofing and cognitive bias risk management, serves as CEO of the future-proofing consultancy Disaster Avoidance Experts, and is a best-selling author of several books, including Returning to the Office and Leading Hybrid and Remote Teams: A Manual on Benchmarking to Best Practices for Competitive Advantage.

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