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    商業 - 金融

    中國牛市的推手:“低學歷羊群”效應

    Scott Cendrowski 2015年04月03日

    中國股市一路狂飆的動力,正越來越多地來自那些只有初中甚至小學文化程度的股民。

    ????周三(4月1日),中國股市又漲了,滬深指數漲幅均在1.7%左右(滬市1.66%,深市1.78%)。2015年以來,A股穩步上揚,滬市一季度上漲了16%,近9個月以來的漲幅接近90%。與此同時,中國經濟正在放緩,中國金融業正面臨巨大壓力,甚至可能出現危機,但股市表現與此背道而馳。

    ????我們曾談到過中國股市,解釋為什么一旦出現牛市行情,就容易激發中國老百姓的賭性,基本上沒人會關心市盈率和基本面。

    ????彭博首席亞洲經濟學家歐樂鷹用一張圖表直觀展示了中國股民這種“羊群效應”。這幅圖顯示,中國牛市的動力正越來越多地來自受教育程度較低的股民,他們普遍資金不多,唯恐錯失良機,爭相涌入股市。歐樂鷹引用的數據來自2014年底對4000個中國家庭的財務狀況調查。他發現,A股市場的新股民大多數沒有高中文憑(6%是文盲),資產也比老股民少得多。

    ????Chinese stocks followed a familiar script on Wednesday: they rose 1.7%. They’ve been riding high for most of the year—in the first quarter, Shanghai stocks climbed by 16%. They’re now up nearly 90% in the last nine months–all against the background of a slowing economy with abundant signals of stress–if not yet distress–from the financial sector.

    ????We’ve written about China’s stock markets before, explaining how they tend to draw out the gambling instincts of regular Chinese once a bull market is underway. Price-to-equity ratios and fundamentals are rarely brought up.

    ????Tom Orlik, chief Asia economist at Bloomberg, assembled a great chart that explains the herd mentality. He shows how China’s bull market is being increasingly driven by less educated folks with smaller assets piling into stocks before they miss their chance. Orlik pulls the data from the China Household Finance Survey which surveyed 4,000 households in late 2014 and found a majority of the new investors in China’s market don’t have a high school education (6% are illiterate) and have far fewer assets than those who already own stocks.

    ????這并不是斷定剛闖進股市的大爺大媽們炒股一定比老股民差。但股民平均學歷下降確實表明,股瘋正席卷中國大地。一般來說,如果就連出租車司機都開始傳授起炒股秘訣,市場往往就離頂部不遠了。(財富中文網)

    ????譯者:Charlie

    ????This isn’t to say regular mom and pop investors can’t outperform more seasoned traders. But the lower education levels do offer evidence of stock mania sweeping through China. When taxi drivers are trading stock tips, markets tend to move into unsustainable territory.

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