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    商業 - 金融

    摩根士丹利的“收入錯覺”

    Lauren Silva Laughlin 2014年10月23日

    投資銀行摩根士丹利發布了業內增長最快的交易收入數據,傲視同儕。但回顧一番該銀行的歷史收入數據,真相是交易業務占這家超大銀行的收入比重正在縮水。

    ????自古以來,“月亮大小錯覺”就是一個令天文觀察者著迷的天文謎題。為什么月亮在靠近地平線時看起來更大?一種廣為接受的解釋是“視距理論”,即樹木和云彩等較小的物體使得月亮看起來更大。當月亮升上當空,它就變成了廣袤天空中的一個亮點。該現象也適用于解釋摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的交易收入情況。

    ????摩根士丹利股價自上周五以來的漲幅逾2%,部分原因是其交易收入增速超過同行。摩根士丹利的股票交易收入增長4%至18億美元,增幅超過美國銀行(Bank of America)和高盛(Goldman Sachs),也超出了華爾街的預期。據彭博社(Bloomberg)的數據顯示,今年前9個月摩根士丹利的股票和債券交易收入增長3.8%,為六大華爾街銀行中增長最快的一家。

    ????相對而言,這個消息令人鼓舞。從事交易業務的機構證券部門仍舊是摩根士丹利最賺錢的部門。

    ????但整體而言,交易占摩根士丹利的收入比重仍在萎縮。今年,這家銀行的固定收益類和股票交易業務約占其總收入的30%。而2009年和2005年的占比分別為37%和48%。

    ????這在一定程度上與華爾街交易業務的整體縮水相關。交易傭金也在下降。據ITG的數據顯示,截止到今年一季度,在過去10年中,平均單筆交易的傭金下降了65%,其中約四分之一的降幅發生在近兩年。更多交易通過暗池或地區交易所完成。大型經紀商正在想方設法繞開傳統的交易路徑。

    ????摩根士丹利交易業務的萎縮,也可能與該公司其他業務收入的增長有關。這或許是一個能令投資者興奮的點。但交易業務就像夜空中的月亮,當太陽落下后,它會看起來越變越小。(財富中文網)

    ????The moon illusion is an astronomical mystery that has fascinated sky watchers since ancient times. It attempts to explain why the moon looks larger as it sits on the horizon. A popular explanation is called the “apparent distance theory”: smaller objects, like trees and clouds, make the moon look larger. As it rises in the sky, the relative atmosphere makes it appear as a blip. Something similar may be said for Morgan Stanley’s trading earnings.

    ????Morgan Stanley’s MS 2.22% stock is up by over 2% since last Friday partly because trading revenue grew at a faster clip than the bank’s peers. Equity trading at Morgan Stanley rose 4% to $1.8 billion, more than both Bank of America BAC 2.09% and Goldman Sachs GS 1.32% , and it beat Wall Street’s estimates. Stock and bond trading revenue increased 3.8% for the first nine months of the year, the biggest gain among the top six Wall Street banks, according to Bloomberg.

    ????Relatively speaking, that’s encouraging. The bank’s institutional securities division, which houses its trading business, is still Morgan Stanley’s biggest moneymaker.

    ????But overall trading is still shrinking at Morgan Stanley as a share of its revenue mix. Fixed income and equity trading at the bank accounted for about 30% of the bank’s total revenue this year. It was 37% in 2009 and 48% in 2005.

    ????Part of the decreased share has to do with the bleed in Wall Street’s trading business in general. Trading commissions are coming down. Average commissions per trade have fallen 65% over the 10 years ending in in the first quarter this year, according to ITG, about 25 percentage points of that drop took place in just the past two years. More trades are being done in dark pools and regional exchanges. Large brokers are finding ways to sidestep traditional trading routes.

    ????Morgan Stanley’s trading has also shrunk because its other businesses are growing. That, perhaps, is what investors should be excited about. Much like the moon in an evening sky, as the sun sets on trading, it will continue to shrink.

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